Life as a Spectator Sport

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Tuesday, February 03, 2004

The NY Times published an article yesterday by William Safire (free registration required to view) that describes an alleged intelligence coup against the Soviet Union in 1982. Sounds good, until you dig a bit into the facts, and if you recognize a possible motive behind this sudden revelation.

Safire's article refers to a book about to be published by Thomas C. Reed, a former Air Force secretary. According to Safire, Reed states, "The pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines and valves [for the Trans-Siberia pipeline] was programmed to go haywire, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to the pipeline joints and welds. The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space."

Safire says that the explosion occurred in 1982 in the Siberian wilderness, with no loss of life, and that the Soviets' discovery of the flawed software "made all the software it had stolen for years . . . suddenly suspect, which stopped or delayed the work of thousands of worried Russian technicians and scientists."

Just a couple of little problems here. First, the explosion he refers to (unless someone snuck one in that nobody else knows anything about) took place in 1989 and was set off by sparks from a couple of passenger trains passing through valleys where leaking gas had settled. Over 500 people were killed.

Second, the NSC staffer with whom Reed was working, Gus Weiss, wrote about the sale of flawed technology to the Soviet Union in a 1996 article now posted on the CIA website. His article states that "Contrived computer chips found their way into Soviet military equipment, flawed turbines were installed on a gas pipeline, and defective plans disrupted the output of chemical plants and a tractor factory." Granted, Reed might simply be providing more information in his book than Weiss did in this article, but if Weiss bothered to note that defective plans "disrupted the output" of chemical plants, it seems odd that he would have skipped any mention of what Reed describes as the "most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space."

There is also the little matter of "computer chips" versus "software." Leaving out for the moment the fact that Weiss specifically says they ended up in Soviet military equipment, 1982-vintage "chips" were not what they are today. You didn't incorporate whole pipeline control software packages into a bunch of chips. Yes, individual controller chips certainly could have been designed to spit out incorrect valve settings. But such chips were used for highly specialized functions and were normally programmed either by the manufacturer of the device they were going to be controlling, or by programmers working at the facility where they were going to be placed into use.

That's not to say pre-programmed chips couldn't have been sabotaged, and the Soviets' definition of military equipment might well have included a natural gas pipeline. Reed's statement may simply reflect a lack of understanding of the difference between individual electronic controllers and "pipeline software." And Gus Weiss's article is non-specific enough to leave plenty of room for things he didn't happen to mention. But the number of apparently conflicting statements, the number of "mays" and "mights" that are required to make it plausible at all, and the outright error in the date of the explosion should have been enough to trigger any editor's bullshit monitor. The fact that Safire's article appeared on the Times op-ed page, rather than being presented as "news," suggests that perhaps it did.

If this article was intended to buoy up the reputation of the intelligence community, all I can say is that it suffers from the same lack of careful research that our intelligence experts have been accused of, and should be viewed with the same skeptical mindset.
posted by Liz @ 10:08 AM     |


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